1. The spoil sport of prediction that bugs me the most is the 'Butterfly Effect'. In essence this spoiler says, that "The most unimportant, minuscule motion causes a motion of effects that one day can cause say a hurricane to occur." In the movie 'Butterfly Effect' the main character was granted the ability to go back in time and change what he did. Alas with every change made a bigger consequence grew. By the time he ended up back in present time his whole life had become a wreck due to all the things he changed from the past.
When predicting things it becomes easier to control certain variables or make it seem as though they are controlled. In essence all you are doing is discounting certain facts that in turns makes your prediction false.
2. See Chris' blog.
3. Our presentation is on Monday December 6.
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