Homework 2 Assignment 1

Predicting the Future:

A look at Cell Phones of the Future

            As I sit back and remember my first cell phone a few things come to mind. First, they were absolutely bulky beyond being truly mobile. Now I look at my Iphone and realize that it is probably just as bulky as those phones, but they don’t even compare when it comes to being to a true mobile device.  Second, the only reason I even had a phone back then was purely for contacting people. Be it my parents to check-in, or friends just to kill time away talking about none-sense. Now I use my Iphone for the Internet, text messaging, taking pictures, video messaging, playing pointless, but time consuming games, checking the box scores of my favorite teams.  No longer are ‘cell phones’ just ‘cell phones’ they are basically extremely portable computers. 

To be honest I spend twice as much time on my cellular device today, than I do on a true desktop or laptop computer.   Who would have predicted this type of mobile explosion 10 or 15 years ago?  I mean who wasn’t content with a cellular service that allowed 1,000 talk minutes, and 100 txt messages back then. I know that 15 years ago I would have been way off in predicting this sort of technological/ societal change.

Yet here I am today in the midst of this complete make over.  I’m going to attempt the near impossible, and predict how the Mobile technology will increase in 10 years, 20 years, and 50 years.  Using a few well-designed prediction methods to help me from over/under estimating the future of the Cell Phone.

Specifically in the mobile phone scene I am interested in how the number of video calls (that is a phone call in which both video and audio are transmitted, and not just audio) will change over the next 10, 20 , and 50 years.  I am interested in this specific are, because I don’t think this trend has reached its max, due to youth of the technology. Iphone4 comes with a completely integrated video chat function, yet can only use this with other Iphone4 devices. None of the younger technologies are compatible.  So as of today I’d say that Video calls are at about 5% of their peak. Taking that 5%  I will have to apply a pseudo Delphi method to my assumptions, seeing as I don’t have a group of people present to poll about the future of Video Messaging, I will be more general in my assumptions allowing for error to be absorbed.

Thus arises the question, What percent of mobile phone calls will be Video Chatting in 10, 20, and 50 years?

In 10 years my basic intuition tells me that the raise will be minimal, due to the fact that technology will have to be compatible. I think this will be the biggest hump clear, as with txt messaging it was a simple software upgrade to most phones for them to include that capability, but with video messaging it requires a front sided camera, and specific software to allow these capabilities.  Even with that said I think the trend will start to kick in and we will see between 25-35% of phone calls involving video.  At this step I would pose the same question to a room of people and get their predictions as well. Here I will assume the skeptical side predicts between 10-15% and there will be 2 skeptical people.  Then there will be the easily excitable which are very optimistic about this technology and they will predict between 50-60%. Let us say there are 4 of these people.  With these numbers the avg. rate would be close to 45% of Phone calls utilizing video technology.  I still feel that this rate is high, but the Delphi method doth not lie.

So in 20 years I feel that the technology will be there, the price will be fair, and the rise of video messaging is on full blast. The only thing holding back the advancement will be the old timers/non tech savvy. Lets face it these people are the basic root that holds back technology. If they don’t agree with it, it will never be acceptable in their terms, So they will never learn it. So with this in mind I predict that 50-60% of phone calls will include video messaging. There will always be that one person who doesn’t see this technology as viable and they will predict a slim 20-30% in 20 years. The rest will probably over estimate and choose between 80-90%. That is 1 for 20-30% 1 for 50-60%, and 5 for 80-90%.  Thus leaving us with an average around 70%. This is a quite fair average, I definitely agree with the Delphi Method here.

And 50 years the old farts are gone and we can sing upon a nation full of video messages. It will be as popular as eating as 95-99% of all phone calls will be video messaging.  Pretty much every mobile device will have the technology and we would be stupid as a society to not utilize it.  There will be a few more skeptical predictions as they feel that a newer better way of communicating will start its uprise here, and only predict 40-50% the rest of course will be using this new technology. As for the rest of the predictions I see them ranging from 90-99%. Leaving us with an average around 90%. That’s it in 50 years the video messaging technology will be the common way of communicating.